So, where are all the hurricanes at?

So, recently NOAA adjusted their projections for the 2007 tropical cyclone forecast for the Atlantic basin. The forecast calls for a maximum of 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes with 5 of them becoming major (cat 3-5 on the saffir-simpson). Now, while this is a slight decrease over the earlier forecast, it should be noted that they are calling for a 85% chance of an above average season. You can see the projected climate pattern for August and October below

People seem to have 2005 stuck in their heads. That was a year of unprecedented activity, culminating with a record 28th named storm - Zeta, where we were on our 7^th named storm in July, not to mention the occurrence of a rare early season major storm (Dennis, which impacted the Pensacola area on July 10th).

History being our guide, we’re not likely to see a repeat of the 2005 season anytime soon (thank God). Still, even though hurricane season begins June 1^st, it’s not until mid-August (like, right now) that we typically see activity ramp up in the tropics. Specifically it is the Cape Verdes storms that come off the Western edge of Africa, track across the Atlantic, and slam into the hurricane magnet AKA as South Florida.

Without going into too much boring detail and jargon, suffice it to say that so far climatic patterns have been unfavorable for tropical storm formation (even though we've already had 3 named storms), but this appears to be changing. If you are a weather fiend like me, you can read about the cause and effect in more detail on Dr. Jeff Master’s Wunderblog (linked below right) and by perusing the NHC Website.

I hope that this season turns out to be another dud like last year; However, there is no El Nino like last year to ward off the storms (in fact there appears to be a building La Nina which would favor storm formation). I have no desire to be “locked down” in the Miami-Dade County Emergency Ops “star wars” room. I “volunteered” for this duty – I have no dependents (although Katie might quibble with that) and am apparently expendable. Don’t worry, I’ve been trained by the braintrust at the Dept of Homeland Security.

Still, I'm not counting on it. 2004 was another very active year (remember Ivan, Charley, Frances, Jeanne?), which didn't see it's first hurricane until August. Hurricane Bonnie (Aug 22) was the first hurricane of the 98 season, which went on to have twice the number of hurricanes as an average year. Then of course we have the first named storm of the 1992 season. It was a little storm named "Andrew" which steamrolled into Homestead as a cat 5 on August 24th. The area still hasn't fully recovered.

Oh, and for anyone who claims anthropogenic global warming is going to lead to more and more severe storms.... First, inquire if they have enough synapses firing to wipe their own ass, then point them to Dr. William Gray's website, and more specifically to the presentation page. This is really a topic for another time, but suffice it to say that contrary to popular opinion there is no evidence that global warming is leading to more (or more severe) tropical cyclones. Keep in mind that weather satellites have only been around for the last 30 years or so.

Anyone who says otherwise probably would lack the ability to find their own ass with the aid of a flashlight, map, and mirror. So lets pray for the best, and prepare for the worst. I don't know about you, but my hurricane kit has plenty of vodka, spam, and triple-ply Charmin.